Gold? Isn't that Dead? I'm sure all of you remember Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan. He was the Fed head chief for years and presided over such lunacy as the tech bubble in the late 90's, through the credit expansion and beginning of the housing bubble from 2001 - 04. During his reign he said an awful lot, none of it really worth taking note of. But what a lot of people don't know is that before he became the Fed head, he said in a white paper he had written Called "Gold and Economic Freedom" that:
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.Did you know he said that? Probably not, because as Fed head he belittled the wonderful metal. He called it a relic that has no business in the modern world. He and his Central bank buddies beat on it, created schemes to keep it suppressed and fraudulently sold it and leased it to unscrupulous sellers around the world. But wait it gets better. See, before he wasn't a bought and paid for shill for the global elites of the world, he was a brilliant economist. Let's see what else the dear man had to say about gold before he became one of "them":
The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselvesThe welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemesUnder a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible assetThen he gets right to the heart of what bothers the socialist/globalists of this world. Think about this statement the next time some blowhard is on CNBC telling you why gold is garbage. Ponder the agenda of the idiot spewing that, and then compare it to what Greenspan said:
An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense... that gold and economic freedom are inseparable. -Alan Greenspan.
Read those last words. Gold and economic freedom are INSEPARABLE. So, does it not then make sense that if you have no gold standard, that we are not economically free? It does. And, if you are not economically free, are you therefore not socially free? That is correct. Now lets fast forward for a moment and see where we are right now:
WASHINGTON - The government ran up the largest monthly deficit in history in February, keeping the flood of red ink on track to top last year's record for the full year. The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the February deficit totaled $220.9 billion, 14 percent higher than the previous record set in February of last year.
The Obama administration is projecting that the deficit for the 2010 budget year will hit an all-time high of $1.56 trillion, surpassing last year's $1.4 trillion total. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will remain above $1 trillion in 2011, giving the country thrree straight years of $1 trillion-plus deficits
Now isn't that interesting? Greenspan said that without gold you can't be economically free. He also said that the amount of credit a country can support is determined by that asset. So, look at where we are now. No gold standard, and running the biggest deficits in the HISTORY of our nation. How about "credit and Debt?" We are also loaded down with the planets single biggest debt load. Now think about this for one moment. Our nation is 234 years old. For large portions of that span, we had a gold based currency. Even the later years of 1930 -1971 we had a loose tie to gold and guess what? We were the single bigggest creditor nation on earth. We ran budgetary surpluses. Our manufacturing base was the envy of the world. But in just 39 years since leaving the gold standard, all hell has broken loose.
It only took the socialist -nanny state- globalist slime balls 39 years to completely ruin our economic nation. In one young mans lifespan, we took the single most powerful economic state, and turned it into the most indebted state ever seen in the history of the world. Now there's an accomplishment, eh??
So, what's my point here? Simply this folks; from the day Nixon cut us completely loose from any form of gold standard the clock started ticking towards financial Armageddon. We are NOW in the end days of that terrible event. There is no way to rescue us from the depression that's going to come, no amount of freshly printed dollars that will stop what mother nature intends. In the history of the world, every nation that got too big for it's britches, and then decided to become a welfare state, a nanny state, and a military super power, has ended in bankruptcy. Every one. Will we break that mold? Not a chance.
How then does it happen? Well it's simple folks. We elect politicians that lie to us. They campaign for months on end, promising to do all the right things, and then when seated, they do as they damn well please. Well, do you know what they really please? They please to remain politicians. They don't give a rats ass about you. All their pie in the sky BS is nothing more than empty promises so that you'll vote for them again and they can continue their little power trips.
Their pensions are set for life. Their healthcare is free and the finest in the universe. Their perks range from private jets and outlandish liquor bills to private chefs for their flights. They are by most accounts, kings and queens, while the average Joe works his butt off to keep from drowning. The have's and the have not's. Same as it's always been.
Why do we put up with it? Why do we accept it as standard operating procedure that our elected officials will lie to us, steal from us and make fools of us? Are we all stupid? Are we all so apathetic we just don't give a damn? Or have we all become so busy in our own little worlds that there is just not enough time or energy left at the end of the day to do something about it? I think it's a combination of all that. There's no question we've been systematically dumbed down in our schools, and fed socialist baloney from kindergarten. There's no question that many were happy just being "fat, dumb and happy" and couldn't really care less. Then there is the crusaders who "think" their doing something noble, and don't even realize they're working towards the globalists agendas. Then of course there's the contingent that would like to make a difference, but are indeed so busy trying to keep a roof, and food on the table and medicine for the kids, they are flat out busted by the end of the day.
So here we are. Our Nation is bankrupt. Our banks keep two sets of books. Our infrastructure is crumbling. Our people are under employed and un employed. Our costs are skyrocketing. Our states can't make budget. We're selling highways to foreigners. Our deficits are in the trillions, not to mention the 80 trillion that we are going to owe for all our programs. What on earth do we do about it? How do we see our way clear of this nightmare? In the "overall" we can't change it folks. What's got to happen, will indeed happen. But at the individual level you can do things to make it through okay. That's why I started todays letter talking of gold.
Read the statement again. Gold and economic freedom are inseparable. I didn't say that, Alan Greenspan did, long before he became an elitist scumbag. Back when he was a brilliant economist and said what he knew, versus saying what he was told. Maybe it was some form of bizarre destiny that I started my life in the jewelry business. I was surrounded by gold, silver and gems. I was amazed at the look, the feel, the lustre and the history of it all. And somehow, just somehow I knew "this stuff is important".
Well I think it's more important now than at any time in the last 100 years. Look at the headlines that hit us each day. Wars, terrorism, failing banks, millions unemployed more millions under employed, states bankrupt, infighting amongst all the politicians, more and more deficits, more and more sovereign debt troubles, etc etc. To think that all this is just "business as usual" is a mistake I don't want you to make. No one knows who the next lehmans is, or Bear Sterns. No one knows what country will announce their sovereign debt has overtaken them, no one knows what on earth people are going to do for jobs as ever more of them are shipped overseas.
One thing I do know however is that we are on borrowed time. Stalled time so to speak. Yes they're going to keep the pumps running, look at who they want to appoint as Fed co chair. Janet Yellen. Know why? Simple, she's big on the idea of "keep the presses running and we'll deal with the inflation later". They need someone like that at the FED, so they can continue to monetize our debt, bail out more banks, and give the illusion that we're really all "okay". But all streams run their course folks, and this one will too. What's at the end of the stream, a glorious ocean of bounty, or a polluted pond, that's toxic to life? No, Gold isn't dead. Nor is it's stepchild Silver. But, to keep the ponzi scheme alive the FED and the central banks and Wall Street all have to belittle it, beat on it, downgrade it, mock it and trash it. The more people that know gold and silver to be real money is that many less that will want or use their bogus dollar bills.
When they laugh at gold, or call it a "stupid" investment, I have to shake my head. Look at your supposed dollar bills. What is that printed right across the top?? Federal Reserve Note. An IOU. It's not Federal. There is no reserves. Think about it for a moment. If you want lunacy, consider taking a tree worth 700 bucks, grinding it into pulp and printing 10,000 bills that say $100.00 dollars on it. That's insanity. Is there really a million dollars laying around to back up those bills? Nope. Not a single one. Is there anything to back up those notes? YES. A promise by our Government that we will print more of them out of thin air if necessary. Presto. Abra cadabra. Poof. Isn't that swell?
If someone could logically explain to me how we get out of the multitude of messes we are in, I'd gladly sell my gold and silver and go on with life a happy camper. But to this day, not one, not a single solitary soul can tell me how we are going to get past all this. Until someone can, I'll just continue doing what comes naturally, buying silver, buying gold, and playing in their rigged markets. It's not a terrible idea.
Now onto the market:
Interestingly enough, more and more people I meet are considering ways to "get out" of the market at these levels, than trying to get in. Even people who have never paid much attention to the market in the past have been suggesting that this run up is fraught with danger and they want to "get out with what they have". Bravo! It's great to see people truly making sense of the shenanigans we fight against each day.
But there's so many interesting cross currents to this market that it would take a book to discuss them all. For instance did you know that right this very second, some 7000 baby boomers a day are "retiring"? Did you know that? Did you know that for the next 15 years that number is going increase day after day as the biggest wave of money making population goes from their earning days to their sustaining stage? Well it's true. Not only have the baby boomers been responsible for all the economic and financial gains we've seen over the last 20 years, the fact is that day by day, more of them are going to need to take money OUT of the market versus putting money IN.
Most of the idiots on CNBC will dismiss that as just another silly detail. But it's not a silly detail. It's a generational mindset change. Where's the money going to come from to sustain the markets when the bulk of the big earners are drifting to retirement, and their kids are being laid off, or forced into flipping burgers because the factories are gone? Maybe a better question looms. Studies show that up to 51% of the boomers themselves are not prepared to retire, they have less than 50 grand saved. Doesn't it stand to reason that if they can't afford to retire, the minute they are indeed eligible to raid their 401K's without penalty, they're going to take money OUT??? I think it does.
If you add up the ponzi scheme economy, with the demographics, you come away with something a whole lot less rosy than Wall Street is telling you. Yes it's true that in the short term, they can use the Presidents working group to manipulate the market. Yes they can let books mark to model instead of mark to market. Yes companies can use non GAAP accounting to make it look like they're doing great. But in the end the bottom line doesn't change. You can only carry out a scam for so long and then something snaps.
So, we've watched the market run from it's March 09 lows of 6600 and push it's way just shy of the recent highs at 10700. Let me ask a civil question here. Had we not put billions into AIG could we have done that? If we hadn't put billions in FNM and FRE could we? If we hadn't forgiven people that were upside down? If we hadn't had cash for clunkers, babysitters and lightbulbs? I'm thinking no. In fact I'm thinking that virtually all the economic activity we've witnessed is strictly based on the trillions Uncle Sam has printed and sprinkled around like fairy dust. Could we have economic stability if the stimulus stops? Nope, we crash. Therefore insane deficits and Government spending is here for good.
With all that in mind, the only question is this: How far can it go before the wheels fall off and despite their best injections of cash, we see the market crater? It's a great question. We know their intent is to keep pushing so much stimulus that the people get a false sense of security and actually re elect the mutants in Congress in November. But sometimes the market just doesn't play along with their best laid plans. So, here's our take on it.
I put my predictions right here in writing, so there's no revision of history allowed. I said quite a while back that the market would run up and try and challenge the old highs at 10723, but would probably fall short, stalling out at the 10600 (ish) level. For the best part of a week now, that's exactly what happened. We did run from the big "correction" back to 10600 and then came to a grinding halt. So what happens now? Are they just building a new base and we push up through the old high and run to 11,500? I still don't think so. The only wiggle room I'm going to give myself is that I did say we might push up and over the highs in something of a last ditch "orgasmic blow off top". In other words, push up through the highs, a zillion people get excited and rush in, we put in 200 more quick points and then the wheels fall off and all the late comers get crushed once again.
Whether we stall out here at this level, or see that final blow off top, it's still my guess that we are "here". At the top. I don't see where the mutual funds have enough money to keep buying, I don't see the public anxious to put in any more dollars and that just leaves Bernanke and his henchmen. Frankly I think they've about shot their wad too.
We have been leaning long the market, and knock on wood we've been doing very well. A few days back we took in 9 dollars in AAPL, and 2.66 in FCX and a few more here and a few there. On Thursday and Friday we bagged 3 dollars a share in FSYS and made money in RIMM. It's been good. We suggested to our readers that we were liking C as a long if it got over 3.50 and Friday it was trading 4.08. We took CLF at 61.77 and an hour later it was threatening 64.00. Yet we are trading "cautiously". Not wanting to over extend. We don't want to be the guys with no chair when the musical chairs music ends.
At some point in the not too distant future, we'll be buying puts and shorting stocks. But until we roll over and it's proven to me the bear market bounce has ended, we'll continue to lean long for a bit. If you follow along, just "keep your finger near the sell button" you'll sleep easier.
See you all Wednesday.
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